YPS

Being an open supporter of the Gordon-Bayani (sorry mom!) has allowed me to look at this whole presidential race with a detached eye. In many cases a detached eye leads to blindness but in this case things get a little bit clearer especially as my horse will barely be a finisher ( if he/they make it to the finish line at all…sorry Dick).

Gibo is a curiosity isnt he? In any presidential horse race the number 1,2 , and even 3 spots are held by the most popular, moneyed, or most logistically supported ( or any combination of the three). Villar is the clearly most moneyed. Noy is arguably the most popular. Gibo is obviously the dominant party candidate AND administration bet so why isnt Gibo close 3rd? That Erap, an ageing actor, ousted ex-president with no cash, and a non player, still ranks 100% better then Gibo at the polls is, at its most intellectual, a logical anomaly, at its most emotional, a horrible embarrassment for Gibo, and politically, the kiss of death for him.

If this trend continues, I’m willing to bet that Gibo will go down in history as the worst performing candidate ever fielded by an admin and dominant political party.

Now we all know that GMA is no fool to risk placing her bets on a green horse that, instead of winning, might just end up pulling her political hearse. A smart gambler with enough resources knows that to increase your chances of winning you gotta bet on more of the horses. In the case of a four horse race betting on three would almost assure a win. That’s just simple mathematics.

So the question is, which of the top four candidates can GMA trust to protect her legacy of interests should he win? To find which bet GMA really supports, ask yourself which of the top 4 candidates has and will benefit most from a relationship with GMA and vice versa.

Gibo is clearly and admin bet so theres no doubt that GMA supports him. But for someone being supported by the admin the ROI looks weak. Besides, hes only number four not because hes close to the top three but because everyone else is doing far worse. At best he’s a token candidate.

Erap is a little more complicated. Erap’s possible value to GMA is more in transference of votes to her bet as his campaign collapses. But realistically a collapse of Eraps campaign doesn’t mean 100% transference of votes. So at best and as has happened, GMA allows Erap to campaign ( by the Presidential Pardon and vis a vis COMELECs logical approval) to create a voter base that someone she supports can adopt once Eraps campaign does collapse. And if Eraps campaign doesn’t collapse? At its worst Eraps campaign creates a positioning against a candidate who appeals to a totally opposed demographic. Erap para sa mahirap creates a logical if unspoken opposite. The question is whos campaign sounds like Eraps? And whose campaign doesn’t sound like Eraps?

How about Villar? We know GMA is a micro manager. We know GMA isn’t stupid. We know that if someone steals from the coffers gravity is defied and cash flows upwards more than it does downwards. Manny Villar has allegedly benefitted from the GMA administration from the billions in redirected roads and ghost purchases through pagibig. And besides, if the rumors are true, Manny Villar is no stranger to choosing money as a basis to form long term relationships. Nuff said.

Noynoy on the other hand has remained in silent obscurity for the last 6 years of GMAs term. In this case that may have been a good thing. If he benefitted in any way from GMA let me know. Noy would have been a logical candidate for GMA to place a side deal with but, again, with no history of him benefitting from her administration, there are very few financial ties that might bind them together and with the composition of Noys core team, many of whom are from the Hyatt 10, any possible love for GMA is, well, an impossibility.

And there we have it: Gibo: GMAs party bet. Erap: pardoned by GMA. Villar: allegedly made dirty money during GMAs term. What did Noynoy gain? Alin alin alin ang naiba?

So If you were GMA and had to support three out of four candidates to assure a friendly government after May 10, 2010, which three of those four candidates would you choose?

You think?